The dynamics of Disasters and Conflicts in North Central Nigeria: Impact Assessment of Emerging trends, Current realities and Future outlook

The vulnerability of North Central Nigeria has exposed the region to monumental incidences of disasters and conflicts; floods, insurgency, banditry, farmers-herder conflict, ethno-religious and communal clashes, that continue to threaten livelihood opportunities, food security, and social stability. This study examines the dynamics of disasters and conflicts, exploring the underlying types and frequency, past incidents, current realities, and future perspectives on the socio-economic development of the region.  The extant literature assessment of crises focused mainly on mitigation and preparedness, creating a gap in trend analysis, current impact and futuristic outlook to promote sustainable development amidst the mounting challenges. Leveraging the mixed research methods for data collection, a multistage sampling technique was employed to sample 360 respondents for the study, and a well-structured questionnaire (Computer-assisted Personal Interview) was used to assess how environmental degradation, conflict for resource control, and social governance have interfaced in building resilience among affected communities. Data analyses were achieved using Impact Assessment Matrix, Food Security Index, Resilience Analysis Grid and Coping Strategy Index. Results showed that disasters, especially flooding, exerted a devastating effect on 75% of the sampled population, leading to loss of farmlands, crops and housing.  Herders’ attacks took a toll on 67% of the population, resulting in injuries, fatalities and forceful migration. Also, banditry influence was severe among 58% of the population, with a colossal impact on the loss of lives and closure of major markets. Further, disasters and conflict have exacerbated food insecurity (75%) while protection risks (80%), particularly for women and girls. The study concludes that incorporating disaster risk reduction and conflict sensitivity into the impact assessment framework is essential for sustainable development. The study recommends investment in capacity and resilience-building programmes, and conflict resolution mechanisms are essential for sustainable recovery efforts in the region.

Keywords: Conflicts, Disasters, Impact Assessment, North Central Nigeria, Sustainable Development.