Evaluating the Impact of Urbanization on Road Traffic Accidents: Insights from Lagos, Nigeria

Urbanization has emerged as a double-edged swordwhile it fosters economic development and improved infrastructure, it also introduces significant challenges to urban mobility and road traffic safety. This study evaluates the correlation between urbanization and road traffic accidents (RTA) in Lagos, Nigeria, by investigating three key independent variables: urban population (UP), Population Growth Rate (PGR), and Number of Registered Vehicles (NRV). Utilising Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) regression analysis, the research reveals that the intercept value is 2298.304, indicating the average number of traffic accidents when all independent variables are zero. The findings demonstrate a positive correlation between urban population and traffic accidents, with each unit increase in urban population leading to a 0.000103 increase in accidents. Conversely, a unit increase in Population Growth Rate (PGR) corresponds to a decrease of approximately 1054.918 in accidents, suggesting that higher population growth rates may be associated with improved traffic management. Additionally, each unit increase in Number of Registered Vehicles (NRV) results in an increase of 0.000404 in accidents, although its impact is less significant than that of UP. Model fit analysis indicates an R-squared value of 0.700180, explaining about 70.02% of the variance in traffic accidents, while the adjusted R-squared of 0.820288 confirms the model’s robustness. The F-statistic of 3.892228 suggests reasonable explanatory power, despite a p-value of 0.088818 indicating marginal significance at the 10% level. Auto-correlation analysis, represented by a Durbin-Watson statistic of 2.584097, indicates no significant autocorrelation in the residuals, reinforcing the model’s validity. These findings underscore the complexities of urbanization’s impact on road safety and highlight the need for targeted interventions to mitigate traffic accidents in rapidly urbanizing areas such as Enhance Traffic Management Systems by Expanding Existing Safety Measures, Smart Traffic Solutions, Sustainable Urban Planning and Infrastructure Development, Public Transport Improvements, Community Awareness and Education, Regular Data Collection and Analysis, Policy Development and Implementation, Collaboration with Stakeholders. By implementing these recommendations, Lagos can enhance its road safety measures, improve traffic management, and reduce the incidence of road traffic accidents amidst ongoing urbanization.