Building Resilience in Supply Chain under Covid-19

This study conducts a post-mortem analysis of the supply chain of the Federal Capital Territory Health Services and Environmental Secretariat (FCT HSES), Abuja, Nigeria, during the 2020-2023 COVID-19 pandemic to understand the systemic failure of public health security. Employing a qualitative, explanatory single case study design and grounded in the Dynamic Capabilities Theory (DCT), specifically the Sensing-Seizing-Reconfiguring (S-S-R) framework, the research investigates how a system optimized for efficiency became dangerously vulnerable to global, high-impact shocks. The findings revealed a critical systemic sensing failure in the pre-crisis architecture, marked by a lean trap approach, extreme geographic concentration risk in Asia for Active Pharmaceutical Ingredients (APIs), financial rigidity against strategic stockpiling, and a critical visibility gap due to manual systems. (The operational shock was financially devastating, forcing the FCT HSES to pay an estimated 500% to 1,000% above pre-crisis prices for essential commodities, thereby confirming that resilience is cheaper than reaction (Federal Ministry of Health Nigeria, 2021; Haffajee et al., 2020). Despite this vulnerability, the organization demonstrated a costly, latent seizing capability through the rapid mobilization of emergency procurement waivers and ad-hoc Public-Private Partnerships (PPPs). The central conclusion is that for public health security, resilience is a mandatory strategic dynamic capability. The study proposes a comprehensive set of reconfiguration strategies, including institutionalizing end-to-end digital visibility for sensing, formalizing emergency financial mandates for seizing, and mandating a permanent 180-day Strategic National Reserve alongside incentivizing domestic pharmaceutical autonomy for structural reconfiguration. This analysis provides actionable, evidence-based policy prescriptions for centralized public procurement agencies in developing economies.