Spatio-Temporal Analysis of Urban Densification, Land Use Change, and Thermal Patterns in Jimeta, Nigeria (2015–2025)

Urbanization in sub-Saharan Africa is accelerating at an unprecedented rate, fundamentally transforming land cover systems and intensifying environmental pressures. While extensive research has focused on megacities, medium-sized urban centers remain insufficiently studied despite their growing importance in regional development. This study examines the spatio-temporal dynamics of Land Use/Land Cover (LULC) transformation across residential density gradients in Jimeta, Nigeria, between 2015 and 2025, and evaluates the associated thermal implications.

Multi-temporal Landsat imagery was analyzed using supervised classification techniques to generate LULC maps for 2015, 2020, and 2025. Post-classification comparison and transition matrices were employed to quantify land cover changes, while one-way Analysis of Variance (ANOVA) assessed statistical differences across time periods. The results reveal a clear density-dependent transformation pattern: high-density zones exhibited structural saturation with built-up land exceeding 95%, medium-density zones experienced the most rapid transformation with built-up expansion from 61% to 77%, and low-density zones showed gradual peri-urban transition.

Despite observable spatial changes, ANOVA results indicate no statistically significant differences in mean land-use areas across the study periods (p > 0.05), suggesting incremental rather than abrupt transformation processes. The progressive replacement of vegetated surfaces with impervious materials has significant thermal consequences, reinforcing the principles of the Urban Heat Island Effect.

The study highlights the vulnerability of medium-density transitional zones and underscores the need for climate-responsive urban planning strategies. By providing empirical evidence from a medium-sized Nigerian city, this research contributes to broader discussions on sustainable urbanization in rapidly developing regions.