Analysing Food Production and Its Determinants in Nigeria: Insights from an ARDL Analysis

This study explores both the long-term and short-term relationships between staple crop prices, macroeconomic variables, climatic conditions, and food production in Nigeria using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model. It relies on annual data spanning from 1980 to 2025. The results indicate a stable long-run equilibrium connection among food production, staple crop prices (maize, rice, and cowpea), exchange rate, inflation, and climatic factors such as rainfall and temperature.  In the long run, maize and rice prices exert significant negative effects on food production, while exchange rate positively influences domestic production. Rainfall has a positive yet statistically insignificant impact, while both temperature and inflation also show no significant effects. The error correction term is negative and statistically significant, indicating a stable adjustment mechanism. Short-run results indicate that rainfall positively affect food production, while rice prices negatively affect output. The study concludes that both price dynamics and climate variability are critical determinants of food production in Nigeria and recommends policies aimed at stabilizing food prices, improving climate resilience, and strengthening domestic agricultural production.