Geopolitics and Climate Diplomacy in the Lake Chad Basin: An Assessment of Riparian Policies

The Lake Chad Basin constitutes one of Africa’s most complex transboundary socio-ecological spaces. Shared principally by Cameroon, Chad, Niger and Nigeria, and involving the Central African Republic and Libya within the wider basin framework, it is characterised by intense ecological, economic, political and security interdependence. The variability of water resources, environmental degradation, demographic pressure, population mobility and protracted insecurity have transformed the governance of natural resources into an increasingly important geopolitical question. Yet climate change does not operate as an autonomous driver of conflict. Its political significance emerges through its interaction with unequal access to resources, institutional capacities, and state policies, patterns of mobility and security practices. This reflection examines how climate dynamics are reshaping geopolitical relations in the Lake Chad Basin and assesses the extent to which riparian policies and regional institutions are developing effective forms of climate diplomacy. Drawing on a qualitative and comparative analysis of institutional documents and policy reports, the paper combines hydropolitics, political ecology and securitisation theory. It argues that the basin is witnessing a gradual institutionalisation of climate diplomacy, particularly through the Lake Chad Basin Commission, the Water Charter and the Strategic Action Programme 2023–2037. Nevertheless, regional cooperation remains constrained by competing sovereign interests, unequal institutional capacities, the securitisation of environmental challenges and competition for international climate finance. Climate diplomacy in the basin therefore remains situated between cooperation and geopolitical competition. Its future effectiveness will depend on the capacity of riparian states and regional institutions to move from fragmented national adaptation policies towards a genuinely integrated approach centred on human security, territorial resilience and hydropolitical cooperation.

Keywords: Geopolitics; Climate diplomacy; Hydropolitics; Political ecology; Lake Chad Basin; Climate security; Riparian states.