Green Sukuk and Sustainable Finance Instruments: A Mixed-Methods Cost-Benefit Analysis of Public-Private Partnerships and the Omani Green Finance Framework under Vision 2040

This study evaluates the role of green sukuk as a strategic instrument for linking Oman’s capital markets with Vision 2040’s renewable energy and fiscal sustainability goals. Employing a mixed-methods approach, the research conducts a cost-benefit analysis (CBA) of the landmark October 2025 issuance by Oman Electricity Transmission Company (OETC): a $750 million (RO 288.5 million), 5-year Ijara-structured green sukuk that achieved 2.8× oversubscription and a 35–40 bps greenium (final spread 110 bps over US Treasuries). Benchmarking against propensity-score-matched conventional sukuk reveals an estimated NPV financial premium of $8.2 million and substantial environmental returns (≈9.5 million tons cumulative CO₂ avoided over five years, monetised NPV $720–800 million at $80/t CO₂e).

Qualitative analysis examines regulatory alignment under the Ministry of Finance’s 2024 Sustainable Finance Framework (ICMA GBP/SBP compliant, Moody’s SQS2 rating) and opportunities for scalable public-private partnerships. The study introduces the Omani Green Finance Resilience Framework (OGFRF), a five-pillar model (eligibility criteria, transparent reporting/verification, PPP incentives, capacity building, capital-market integration) designed to foster resilient green finance in hydrocarbon-dependent emerging economies. Results confirm that green sukuk deliver lower borrowing costs, enhanced investor demand, and accelerated renewable integration while addressing verification and liquidity challenges.

The “Omani Model” offers a replicable blueprint for GCC and emerging markets seeking to decouple fiscal sustainability from oil volatility through sovereign frameworks and corporate green issuances.