Demographic Expansion and Economic Development: An Analysis of the Nigerian Economy (1985–2022)

In this paper, the researcher focuses on how population growth has affected the economic growth within the Nigerian context between 1985 and 2022. The study fills this critical gap in the literature that has mixed evidence on this relationship by relying on a thorough time-series analysis. The research has a quantitative approach as the data used are collected by the World Bank, the Central Bank of Nigeria and the National Bureau of Statistics. The short-run and the long-run dynamics are examined with the help of the econometric methods such as the Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) test, the Johansen cointegration test, Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) and Granger Causality Test. The results show that there is a statistically significant negative long-run relationship, which means that high population growth rates have been a drag to the economic growth of Nigeria during the study period. The findings also provide a single-directional causality between the growth in population and economic growth. These results are consistent with a Malthusian view, which holds that population growth in the country has put a strain on available economic resources, and has slowed increase in per capita income. The paper ends with a set of policy recommendations that are supposed to regulate the demographic trends and use human capital to promote sustainable economic growth.