The Impact of Exports on Kaldor Square Components: An Econometric Study of the Iraqi Economy Using the ARDL Model for the Period (2004-2023)

This study aims to analyze the standard impact of exports on the components of the Kaldor Square in the Iraqi economy during the period (2004-2023), using the ARDL model, which is one of the models suitable for dealing with time series data with different levels of integration. This research examines the relationship between exports and industrial output, industrial employment, and industrial productivity, with the aim of determining the effectiveness of exports in stimulating real economic growth in Iraq. Initial results showed the existence of varying correlations in the long run between exports and the components of the Kaldor Square, which reflects the rentier nature of the Iraqi economy and the dominance of the oil sector over the economic structure. The study reached a set of recommendations, the most important of which is the need to diversify the export base and stimulate non-oil industrial exports as a real lever for sustainable growth and improving overall economic performance.